Data Analytics · Visualisation

US Presidential Elections 2000–2024

A Tableau-driven exploration of 24 years of US presidential election data, uncovering voting patterns across 7 elections, identifying high-risk "swing" states most likely to flip, and forecasting which party is most likely to win the next election based on historical sentiment trends.

Project Type Data Analytics · Story
Data Range 2000 – 2024 (7 elections)
Audience Policy Analysts · Campaigners
Stack Tableau SQL Excel EDA
Overview

The question

Across seven presidential elections from 2000 to 2024, both major parties have won an equal number of times — but the path to victory has shifted dramatically. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. This analysis maps where party strongholds remain stable, which states swing most often, and what sentiment trends in those high-risk states suggest for the next election.

Key findings

The data tells a consistent story: while Republicans dominate the electoral map by area, Democrats hold structurally safer electoral college positions. The next election hinges on three swing states.

3
Swing states identified
Florida, Iowa, and Nevada emerged as the most unpredictable states with the highest chance of flipping between parties.
41
Electoral votes in play
The three unpredictable states control 41 electoral college votes — about 7.6% of the total — enough to decide a close race.
52.94%
Obama's record share
Barack Obama achieved the largest single-election vote share across 24 years, driven by historic timing and data-led campaigning.
72%
Democrats' electoral edge
Despite declining popular vote share, Democrats hold 72% of low-risk electoral college votes — a structural advantage in close elections.
Tableau Story

The full analysis

Six interactive Tableau dashboards walking through the data — from popularity rankings to swing-state analysis to a final prediction for the next election. Click any slide to view it full-size; commentary for each appears below as you swipe.

Slide Commentary
Overview of US Presidential Elections
Red versus Blue — has public sentiment shifted over time? This story unpacks 24 years of US presidential elections to identify the structural drivers of party support and forecast the next likely winner.
Source Files

Tableau workbook & data

The complete Tableau workbook with all dashboards, calculated fields, and the cleaned electoral college dataset — hosted on GitHub.

View on GitHub

Browse the Tableau workbook, source CSV data, and project files for full reproducibility.

.twbx Tableau CSV EDA
Open Repository